冲突不断:中美争夺全球高科技创新领军地位

2019年1月3日 09:45
來源:香港奇点财经Singularity Financial

In November 2018, the US Commerce Department released a list of technologies, including artificial intelligence, that are under consideration for new export rules because of their importance to national security.

2018年11月,美国商务部发布了一系列技术清单,清单包括人工智能,并且由于其对国家安全的重要性,美国正在考虑新的出口准则。

The export controls are being considered as the United States and China engage in a trade war. The Trump administration has been critical of the way China negotiates deals with American companies, often requiring the transfer of technology to Chinese partners as the cost of doing business in the country. And federal officials are making an aggressive argument that China has stolen American technology through hacking and industrial espionage.

出口管制正被视为美国和中国之间贸易战的一部分。特朗普政府一直批评中国与美国公司谈判的方式,尤其谈判中往往要求将技术转让给中国合作伙伴,作为在中国开展业务的成本。联邦官员们也正在对中国通过黑客攻击和工业间谍活动窃取美国技术的问题争论不休。

AI gets political

AI政治化

An article released by New York Times on January 1, 2019, pointed out that, curbing on A.I. exports may eventually have Silicon Valley lose its edge. It is difficult to put a “made in America” label on artificial intelligence. Research on the technology is often done collaboratively by scientists and engineers all over the world.

《纽约时报》2019年1月1日发表的一篇文章指出,美国限制人工智能技术出口可能最终让硅谷失去优势,因为AI技术的研究突破依赖全世界各地的科学家和工程师共同完成,很难在每项人工智能技术上贴上“美国制造”的标签。

Artificial intelligence, which involves computer systems performing tasks that simulate human intelligence, is expected to turn into a high-stakes political issue for China, as unresolved trade tensions prompt the US to tighten controls over the export of chips and other key technologies to the mainland.

人工智能,涉及使用计算机系统执行模拟人类智慧,预计将成为中国的一个高风险政治问题。而因为一直未解决的贸易紧张局势也促使美国加强对芯片和其他关键技术对中国出口的控制。

Jeffrey Ding, China lead for the Governance of AI Programme at University of Oxford, said the export controls may push Beijing to “ramp up efforts at promoting indigenous innovation, which may come back to bite American firms hoping to maintain access to the Chinese market”.

牛津大学人工智能项目治理中国负责人Jeffrey Ding表示,“出口管制可能会促使北京‘加大推动自主创新的力度’,这样一来,那些希望进入中国市场的美国公司將失去竞争优势。”

China has identified 17 key areas for AI development in China, among them smart vehicles, intelligent service robots, intelligent drones, neural network chips, and intelligent manufacturing, for examples; as well as bringing the value of AI to all levels throughout the supply chain.

中国已经确定了人工智能发展的17个关键领域,其中包括智能车辆,智能服务机器人,智能无人机,神经网络芯片和智能制造等,并将AI的价值带到整个供应链的各个层面。

In the near-term future, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) hopes to thrive in smart chips for autonomous driving, intelligent vehicle algorithms, and vehicle communications. Over the coming three years, Beijing expects to increase in the size of the AI industry by ten times.

在短期内,中国工业和信息化部(MIIT)希望能够推动自动驾驶,智能车辆和车辆通信的智能芯片的蓬勃发展。在未来三年内,北京预计将人工智能产业规模扩大十倍。

China has a competitive AI game plan

中国具备有竞争力的人工智能战略规划

The Boston Consulting Group’s study Mind the (AI) Gap: Leadership Makes the Difference published earlier December 2018 provides insights into China’s emerging global leadership of AI. A copy of the study can be downloaded here. BCG’s study focuses on the key drivers of success in AI implementations and is based on a global survey of over 2,700 managers in seven countries.

根据波士顿咨询集团(BCG)在2018年12月的研究《关注(AI)差距:管理者引发的不同》提供有关中国在新兴市场全球人工智能领导力的见解。该研究的副本可以在这里下载。 BCG的重点研究人工智能能够得以实施的关键驱动因素,并对对7个国家2,700多名管理人员进行全球调查。

The study found that there is a strong connection between bold, disruption-friendly management styles including actively putting AI high on the agenda, encouraging rapid development and piloting, and fostering cross-functional, agile R&D, all leading to AI industry leadership. Chinese organizations are beginning to dominate AI due to these factors combined with their shorter innovation cycles than their peer organizations. BCG found that structural improvements at the national level do play an important role in laying the foundations for AI growth—investments in data infrastructure, in research hubs and networks, and higher education for IT and data-related fields.

该研究发现,积极地将AI列入议程,鼓励快速开发和试点,促进跨职能,更为灵敏的研发,这类大胆,突破性管理都能够帮助公司在AI行业取得领导地位。这些因素再加上中国公司的创新周期比同行业需要的时间短,中国在人工智能行业里快速成长,后来居上。 BCG还发现,在全国范围进行结构性改进确实能够推动人工智能叠代更新,高速发展,尤其是对基础设施,研究中心,网络以及IT和数据相关领域的高等教育的投资为AI发展奠定了坚实基础。

In fact, global GDP is set to increase by 14 percent because of AI, according to PwC. The tech’s deployment in the decade ahead will add $15.7 trillion to global GDP, with China predicted to take $7 trillion and North America $3.7 trillion, according to the multinational company. “Data is the new oil, so China is the new Saudi Arabia,” Kai-Fu Lee, venture capitalist and author of “AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order,” told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

据普华永道称,由于人工智能,全球GDP将增加14%。据跨国公司称,该技术在未来十年的部署将为全球GDP增加15.7万亿美元,中国预计7万亿美元,北美3.7万亿美元。 “数据是新的石油,所以中国是新的沙特阿拉伯,”风投资本家,《AI Superpower:中国,硅谷和新世界秩序》的作者李开复表示。

“If you measure by research — basic research papers published, excellence of research — U.S. is and will be ahead for the next decade,” he said. “But if you measure by value created, how much market capitalization, how many users, how much revenue, China probably is already ahead.” Lee said AI could replace 40 to 50 percent of all jobs in the U.S. in the next 15 years.

“如果你通过研究来衡量 – 发表的基础研究论文的篇数,卓越的研究成果 – 美国将在未来十年内取得进展,”他说。 “但如果按照创造的价值衡量,市场资本化程度,用户数量,收入多少,中国可能已经领先。”

李开复表示表示,未来15年,人工智能可以取代美国40%至50%的工作岗位。

The steps to achieve global dominance reflect the amount of funding destined to technology and AI firms in China. Last year, 48 percent of total global funding of AI startups globally came from China, compared to 38 percent funded by the US, and 13 per cent by the rest of the world.

实现全球主导地位的每一步都反映了中国技术和人工智能公司的资金数量。去年,全球人工智能创业公司全球资金总额的48%来自中国,而美国的这一比例为38%,世界其他地区则为13%。

China will soon overtake the US in developing and deploying AI

中国将很快在开发和部署人工智能方面超过美国

Lee Kai-fu, Google’s former China head who now manages about US$2 billion in investments as chairman and chief executive of the technology-focused venture capital firm Sinovation Ventures, acknowledges that China is playing catch-up to the US but thinks the balance is tilting due to the country’s practical application of AI and huge pools of data.

谷歌前中国负责人李开复现在管理着约20亿美元的投资,担任以技术为重点的风险投资公司Sinovation Ventures的董事长兼首席执行官,他承认中国正在追赶美国,但认为现在的平衡已经由于该国实际应用人工智能和庞大的数据库而发生倾斜。

“I believe that China will soon match or even overtake the US in developing and deploying AI,” he writes in his new book, AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley and the New World Order ,arguing that China’s entrepreneurs are using AI to solve real-world problems just like entrepreneurs in the 19th century applied the invention of electricity to practical concerns such as cooking, lighting and the powering of industrial equipment.

“我相信中国很快会在开发和部署人工智能方面与美国相匹敌甚至超过美国,”他在新书《AI Superpowers:中国,硅谷和新世界秩序》中写道,中国的企业家正在使用人工智能来解决实际问题。世界问题就像19世纪的企业家将电力发明应用于烹饪,照明和工业设备供电等实际问题。

According to Lee, this transition towards implementation helps China avoid its weak point in “outside the box” approaches to research and a lack of top-tier researchers, and leverage its most significant strength – “scrappy entrepreneurs with sharp instincts” for building robust businesses.

李开复表示,这种将技术落地的转变有助于中国避免 “开箱即用”和缺乏顶级研究人员方面的弱点,并利用其最重要的力量 – “富有创业精神的斗志旺盛的企业家”来建立稳健的企业。

According to China AI Development 2018 report, China had 18,232 AI technology research talents, accounting for 8.9 percent of the world’s total, US accounting for 13.9 percent. Currently, China is harnessing the potential of digital technologies to continue its progress on the path of economic development.

根据中国人工智能发展2018年的报告,中国拥有18,232名人工智能技术研究人才,占全球总数的8.9%,美国占13.9%。

目前,中国正在利用数字技术的潜力,继续在经济发展的道路上取得进展。

Many Chinese businesses are recognizing the need to invest their money and expertise in innovation hubs or equivalents to drive leading-edge products and services. Susana Tsui, Group CEO of Dentsu Aegis Network, China, says, “These investments will help China to move further up the value chain into more knowledge-based activity, while also increasing the spread of digital services and products across the economy.”

许多中国企业认识到为了推动领先的产品和服务,需要将他们的资金和专业知识投入到创新中心或同等产品中。

Dentsu Aegis Network中国集团首席执行官Susana Tsui表示,“这些投资将帮助中国进一步向价值链上移动更多知识型活动,同时也增加数字服务和产品在整个经济中的传播。”

“I think moving forward into the future, we are going to see more industry-specific or vertical-specific AI, and AI-specific chipsets dedicated for specific use cases. At the moment, the industry as a whole is working on creating powerful general purpose AI frameworks and hardware. Once all the groundwork has been laid out, we will see more targeted AI applications which will lead to industrial wide adoption,” Su says.

Su说:“我认为展望未来,我们将看到更多行业特定或垂直化的AI产品,以及专用于特定用例的AI专用芯片组的出现。目前,整个行业正致力于创建功能强大的通用性的AI框架和硬件。一旦完成所有基础工作,我们将看到更多有针对性的AI应用程序,这将领导其在工业中被广泛采用。”