对话投资界巨人Jim Breyer: 用智慧和谦卑去挑战未来科技

2018年12月5日 23:38
來源:香港奇点财经 Singularity Financial

Jim Breyer is a famous American venture capitalist, founder and CEO of Breyer Capital, an investment and venture philanthropy firm, and a former partner at Accel Partners, a venture capital firm. Breyer has invested in over 40 companies that have gone public or completed a merger, with some of these investments, including Facebook, earning over 100 times cost and many others over 25 times cost. Breyer has invested in companies like Etsy, Circle, Marvel, Datalogix, Kensho, Legendary Pictures, Spotify, Paige.AI, Subtle Medical, and many more. In 2004, Breyer helped establish a joint venture between Accel Partners and China-based IDG Capital Partners, a pioneering Chinese investment firm behind Baidu and Tencent. Breyer is active in the Chinese investment community and continues to invest in the country through Breyer Capital and IDG. Additionally, he is a member of the Advisory Board at the Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management.

Jim Breyer是著名的美国风险投资家,投资和公益创投公司Breyer Capital的创始人兼首席执行官,也是风险投资公司Accel Partners的前合伙人。 Breyer投资的公司中,已有超过40家完成了公开上市或合并,其中一些投资(包括Facebook)的回报率超过100倍,还有其他诸多公司的回报率超过25倍。 Breyer投资了Etsy、Circle、Marvel、Datalogix、Kensho、Legendary Pictures、Spotify、Paige.AI、Subtle Medical等公司。 2004年,Breyer帮助Accel Partners与总部位于中国的IDG 资本建立了合资企业,后者曾培育出腾讯、百度等巨头。 Breyer在中国投资界十分活跃,并持续通过Breyer Capital与IDG在中国投资。 此外,他还是清华大学经济管理学院顾问委员会成员。

On November 28, 2018 Hong Kong tech media company Singularity Financial Limited (“SFL”) conducted an interview with Jim Breyer at CNBC’s inaugural tech conference, East Tech West, in Nansha, Guangzhou. Below are details of Jim’s discussion with CNBC and with SFL’s interview.

2018年11月28日,香港科技媒体奇点财经在广州南沙举办的CNBC中西方科技对话峰会上对Jim Breyer进行了专访,以下是Jim与CNBC的讨论以及与奇点财经的访谈的详细内容。

Part 1: “the very best AI and machine learning personnel are being recruited now as freshmen, from the top universities.”

Part 1:顶尖的AI和机器学习从业者正从顶尖大学中被“选秀”

When I was very lucky and fortunate to invest in Mark Zuckerberg, he was not yet 21. I had met with Friendster and Myspace, and a third company, Tickle, within the past year, so I knew what I wanted in social networking, in 2005, and then tracked down Mark. We met in March, it took us a week of going back and forth on what kind of offer it would be, we went out for a dinner, I ordered him a pinot noir, he said, ‘Jim, I’m not yet 21, no pinot noir for me, give me a month,’ and shook hands on a deal the next day.

当我非常幸运地投资马克扎克伯格时,他还不到21岁。我在过去的一年里遇到了Friendster、Myspace,以及Tickle,所以我知道我想要怎样的社交网络,在2005年,我找到了马克。我们在3月份见面,花了一个星期来来回回的商讨报价,我们出去吃晚饭时,我给他点了一个黑皮诺红酒,他说,“Jim,我还不到21 ,还喝不了这个,再给我一个月。”,我们在第二天达成了协议。

I spend most of my time looking at new investments, where the underlying platform is a set of artificial intelligence platforms built alongside cloud services provided by Alibaba, by Google, Amazon, Microsoft……In the United States, the very best AI and machine personnel are being recruited now as freshmen, from the top universities.” That’s never happened before. They are being recruited just like a pro basketball team will start looking at high school and first year students at college, they are getting enormous pay packages, they are encouraged to finish school, but these are the Messis, these are the LeBron Jameses, if you will, of the world of artificial intelligence. So, one of the trends we see in the US, the so-called FAANG stocks are recruiting the very, very best artificial intelligence talent, and they’re not always working on the latest consumer web service, many oftentimes they’re working on very specialized applications, Google and Apple both have significant AI healthcare opportunities that they’re recruiting heavily for, in some cases out of medical school. These are gifted young individuals. And I try to recruit these same people, maybe a year later, or maybe two years out of Apple, Google, and Amazon, uh, where they want to change the world, they want to have a mission-oriented company, they have extraordinary talent, they are getting the equivalent of $400,000 or $500,000 annually, plus equity, they’re 25 or 26 years old , and the goal is to team four or five of these superstars together……The good news is, if we can make these work, get the great chemist, get the great breast cancer expert, get the best of the best computer scientists, to work together, and run algorithms against very defined datasets, there will be massive opportunities. Google, Facebook, Amazon, won’t be building those kinds of vertically oriented AI products and services. This is human-assisted AI, which will help nurses and doctors give better diagnoses to their patients……Finding the art to try to combine the great machine learning individuals with the great doctors, having them work on a congruent mission, that’s part of the art of venture capital.

我花了大部分时间来寻找新的投资,其中底层平台是一套人工智能平台,与阿里巴巴、谷歌、亚马逊、微软提供的云服务一起构建……在美国,最好的AI和机器学习从业者正从顶尖大学中被“选秀”。“这从未发生过。他们正在被招募,就像职业篮球队从高中生与大一新生中选秀一样,他们获得了巨额报酬,他们被鼓励完成学业,但他们是AI领域的梅西、勒布朗。因此,我们在美国看到了这一趋势,高科技上市公司正在招募最优秀的AI人才,而且他们并不总是致力于提供最新的消费者网络服务,很多时候他们都在努力构建非常专业的应用程序,谷歌和苹果都在探索AI保健行业,他们正在大量招聘。这些都是有天赋的年轻人。而我试图招募这些人,也许一年后,或者两年后离开苹果、离开谷歌和亚马逊,他们想要改变世界,他们希望拥有一个以任务为导向的公司,他们拥有非凡的天赋,他们每年的薪水达到40万美元或50万美元,还有期权,他们已经25、26岁了,我们的目标是将这些超级巨星聚集在一起……好消息是,如果我们可以做到这些工作,拥有伟大的化学家,拥有伟大的乳腺癌专家,拥有最好的计算机科学家,让他们一起工作,运行针对明确数据的算法,将获得大量的机会。谷歌、Facebook、亚马逊将不会建立这种垂直导向的AI产品和服务。这是人工辅助AI,它将帮助护士和医生为患者提供更好的诊断…..尝试将伟大的机器学习科学家与伟大的医生结合起来,让他们完成一致的任务,这就是风险投资的艺术。

Part 2: “the two countries, particularly in strategic areas, are in a race, but a lot of good solutions will come out of this competitive race that will be broadly distributed to consumers.”

Part 2: “两国在战略领域的竞争尤为激烈,但竞争会产生很多优秀的解决方案,并被消费者广泛接纳”

My personal view on the China-US trade war is, the two countries need each other, it is a mutually beneficial relationship. I felt very strongly about China-US in 2001 and 2002 when I was the managing partner at Accel partners in Palo Alto. The venture capital business was good, but less so in Europe, and the real competitive internet consumer products were emerging in China. In 2005 we created IDG Breyer Capital, which is still doing extremely well, the investments include Baidu, Tencent, Xiami recently and many others. We have about 100 professionals now just in China, and 1/3 of Breyer Capital investing is in China. And I believe, the two countries, particularly in strategic areas such as bio-genomics, artificial intelligence, cloud services, and of course, the consumer leaders of today, are in a race, but a lot of good solutions will come out of this competitive race that will be broadly distributed to consumers.”

我个人对中美贸易战的看法是,两国需要对方,两国的关系是互利的。 2001年和2002年,我在帕罗奥图市的Accel担任管理合伙人时,我对中美关系的态度非常强烈。风险投资生意很好,但在欧洲则不那么好,真正具有竞争力的互联网消费产品在中国出现。 2005年,我们创建了IDG Breyer Capital,它表现十分出色,投资了包括百度、腾讯、小米等其他许多公司。我们现在在中国就有100名专业员工,而且三分之一的Breyer Capital投资在中国。我相信,这两个国家,在各大战略领域,如生物基因学、人工智能、云服务都在竞争中,但很多好的解决方案都会诞生于竞争中,并被消费者广泛接受。

……we were speaking earlier about AI applying to medicine. There are a handful of brain cancer centers in US, Memorial Sloan Kettering, Mass General, UCSF, Stanford medical center, MD Anderson, Mayo, they provide outstanding cancer care by using AI……one technology can cut the wait time for a result in half, plus with the way algorithm data works, we will see better results coming back to the doctors……it is also true for people who don’t have access to tier one cancer centers, people who live in the rural areas, we see this as a very fundamental opportunity and solution for a second opinion, for lower cost, and for improving efficiency……we are looking at a broad landscape of AI…in certain vertical areas, it has been hard to penetrate with long-standing system software built-in……the two big vertical areas of medicine and finance will leverage artificial intelligence and deep learning to do tremendous things.

……我们之前谈到人工智能应用于医学。美国有一些脑癌中心,例如纪念斯隆凯特琳癌症中心、Mass General、加州大学旧金山分校,斯坦福医学中心,MD安德森、梅奥,他们使用人工智能提供出色的癌症治疗……一项技术可以减少一半的检测时间,再加上算法数据的工作方式,我们会看到医生获得更好的检查结果……对于那些无法进入癌症中心治疗的人来说,例如很多农村居民就是如此,我们看到这是第二种观点的一个非常基本的解决方案,降低成本、提高效率……我们正在研究人工智能的广阔领域…在某些垂直领域,很难用长期系统软件来渗透……医学和金融两大垂直领域将利用人工智能和深度学习来做大事。

We always come to periods of trade war, I hope this one does not go too far. I believe both counties are much better off with fair balanced trading. The trade I see today is fairly balanced.

我们总会经历贸易战时期,我希望它不会走得太远。我相信两个国家会从均衡的贸易中受益。我认为当今的贸易是相当均衡的。

Part 3: “The great thing about technology investment, we always have to be humble.”

Part 3: “技术投资的重要之处在于我们要始终保持谦虚”

2/3 of my portfolio goes to AI opportunities, or Blockchain opportunities with AI elements, almost all of the additional 1/3 have some element or partnership where AI plays a significant role. There is a company called C3.AI, the founder was a super star at Oracle in the mid-80, left Oracle and built Siebel System, and sold Siebel System back to Oracle 15 years later. Four years ago, he developed this massive software company to monitor the performance of services, where he is building an underlying AI software platform to allow companies to monitor IoT performance in different industries……so this kind of big application, costs US$1million or US$1.2million, for customers to implement, to compete with Oracle, GE, to some extent, Microsoft.  So what we see is mass platform-ship, it leads to, for some period of time, a massive software development opportunity. In the late 80s, it was mainframe; then it came client-server systems; then we moved into the internet as designed; in the mid-2000s, we had social media networks; in 2015, we started seeing some artificial intelligence platforms, cloud services; the next big thing, 3-4 years from now, will be quantum computing.”

我投资组合中的2/3关于AI领域,或为使用AI的区块链项目,剩下的1/3或多或少也都有一些AI元素。有一家名为C3.AI的公司,创始人是80年代中期甲骨文的超级明星,后离开甲骨文并建立了Siebel系统,并在15年后将Siebel系统卖回给了甲骨文。四年前,他开发了这家大型软件公司来监控服务的性能,他正在构建一个底层人工智能软件平台,让公司能够监控不同行业的物联网性能……,这种大型应用需要花费100万美元或者120万美元,供客户实施,在某种程度上与微软、甲骨文、通用电气竞争。所以我们看到的是大规模平台,它在一段时间内导致了巨大的软件开发机会。在80年代后期,它是大型机;然后是客户端—服务器系统;然后我们按照设计进入互联网;在2005年左右,我们有社交媒体; 2015年,我们开始看到一些人工智能平台以及云服务;今后3-4年,量子计算将是一个巨大的主题。

The great thing about technology investing is we always have to be humble. There is always someone brilliant, ten years from here, a potential winner, a Nobel Prize winner, there is always a hard problem to solve.

科技投资的重要之处在于我们必须保持谦虚,总有人聪明无比,或许会夺得诺贝尔奖,也总有许多问题亟待解决。

If we take a ten-year view of FAANG or BAT stocks, I think 2/3 of them will succeed even with all the pressure that is going on because of the great leadership they are taking on.  Jack Ma brought in a gifted team for next generation leadership, Pony Ma and Jeff Bezos are exceptional. Never before have we seen many companies leading by a large amount in their respective areas. They have the intensity and entrepreneurial vision to keep fighting, to keep on moving forward……so the smart ones, they are constantly looking for partnerships, like Marc Benioff from Salesforce, has made several investments with me, they tend to be in healthcare oriented areas that leverage AI.

如果我们持有FAANG或BAT的股票10年,我认为即使面临所有压力,他们中的2/3也会成功,因为他们拥有强有力的领导者。马云引领了一支有天赋的团队,马化腾和Jeff Bezos也都出类拔萃。我们从未见过这么多公司在各自领域大幅领先。他们保持战斗强度和企业愿景,继续前进……,他们不断寻找合作伙伴,如Salesforce的Marc Benioff,已经与我进行了多次投资,他们将AI应用于保健行业。

Part 4: “India is very interesting, from a startup point of view. But it does not have the same sheer breadth of growth as the US and China.”

Part 4: “从创业的角度来看,印度非常有趣。但他的增长幅度赶不上中国与美国。”

When I first started investing in China, one third or one half of the investments were copycat investments. Today I see companies innovating in AI, 5G, genomics, biomedicine, almost as diligently and significantly as the top US companies. The number of top graduates from Tsinghua, Beida, they competed effectively when I interviewed them with top students from MIT, Harvard and Stanford University. It is a different era now. I see ground rules that are important, mutual trust is important. I see copycats less and less, IP thefts occurring less and less these days……I see a company like Sensetime that has the best facial recognition capabilities in the world.

当我第一次开始在中国投资时,三分之一或一半的投资用来投资模仿者。今天,我看到中国公司在人工智能、5G、基因组学,生物医学方面奋勇创新,几乎与美国顶级公司一样勤奋而努力。来自清华,北大的优秀毕业生与来自麻省理工学院,哈佛大学和斯坦福大学的优秀学生激烈的进行竞争。现在是一个不同的时代,我认为基本规则很重要,相互信任很重要。我看到仿制品越来越少,盗窃IP现象越来越少……我看到像Sensetime这样的公司拥有世界上最好的人脸识别能力。

India is very interesting from a startup point of view. But it does not have the same sheer breadth of growth as the US and China. Some people would argue India is ten years behind China, but it is never that simple. You can get a provincial go-ahead, but the central government might slow down the service; you can get a central government infrastructure initiated, but a couple of states will slow down the initiatives. So one example, we were a large investor of a large e-commerce company in China, Walmart bought the company and paid US$15B. But the sheer number of details in India requires much more time with ministers, government officials… there are a lot of business mentalities where business owners will push back.

从创业的角度来看,印度非常有趣。但它与美国和中国的增长幅度完全不同。有人认为印度落后中国十年,但事实并非如此简单。你可以获得省级批准,但中央政府可能会放慢服务速度;您可以启动中央政府基础设施,但有几个州会放慢计划。举个例子,我们是中国一家大型电子商务公司的大型投资者,沃尔玛以150亿美元收购了该公司。但在印度,就需要更多的时间与政府官员打交道……企业主们总是被拖入泥潭。

Part 5: “Crypto technologies are coming, be patient, we’ll see a rebound in sentiment towards these. But they’re not coming this year or next.”

Part 5: “加密科技已经到来,请保持耐心,市场高潮将再次涌现,不过不会在今年和明年。”

There was clearly tremendous speculation, I invested in Circle, series A in 2013. I worked with Jeremy and his previous two companies, Brightcove and Macromedia, so he is a third time entrepreneur. Bitcoin, at that time was US$70.

市场上存在大规模的投机,我2013年A轮投资了Circle,我参与了Jeremy之前的两个项目Brightcove 和Macromedia,这已经是他第三次创业,彼时比特币的价格是70美元

I always would rather be early, but the mistake I made for sure is being too early. But I think I divide the world of cryptocurrency into those that have truly interesting underlying platforms, where parts of the rails are blockchain-based, and then others that are hoping to be a true commodity, and trade like silver.

大多数时候我总是希望赶早,但我这次犯下的错误是太早了。我把加密货币的世界分为两部分,一部分是非常有趣的底层区块链技术平台,另一部分被期待成为商品,并像银一样交易。

Crypto technologies are coming, be patient, we’ll see a rebound in sentiment towards these. But it’s not coming this year or next, although we’ll see isolated examples next year.

加密货币的科技已经崛起,请保持耐心,我们会看到市场情绪的回复,但不会是今年或者明年,不过我们可能在明年看到几个小起伏。

I see a lot of good technologies built around bitcoin. Although bitcoin itself performs poorly today.

我看到很多优秀技术从比特币引申而来,即使比特币自身表现的很差。

I see too many flaws in the ICO area. I think though, eventually, ICOs will offer smaller companies innovative, transparent ways to raise money.

我看到涌入ICO的人太多了。不过,在未来,ICO会为中小企业提供创新、透明的融资渠道。

And I do think it is reasonable for a country to issue cryptocurrencies. It may take a lot of political back and forth, but already some small countries like Estonia, are very aggressive. There are too many people who would push back in larger counties, but for certain aspects of trade, especially as we have seen the breakdown of trilateral/bilateral trade agreements, blockchain technologies make sense..

我认为一个国家发行加密货币是合理的,它可能需要大量政治斗争,但已经有一些像爱沙尼亚这样的小国非常激进。大国大多比较保守,但对于贸易的某些方面,特别是当我们看到三边/双边贸易协议的崩溃时,区块链技术是有意义的。

I have also sat down with leaders of large counties, not G20, but fairly large. They are asking why the US is always fighting and advocating for the dollar as a base currency.  These countries are thinking of implementing blockchain based currencies. But most of these issues are not technical but political. These things take time.

我也曾和大国的领导人深入交流,虽然不是G20,但也是相当大的国家。他们一直在问为什么美国总是不停的推动美元作为基础货币。这些国家正在考虑实施基于区块链的货币。但大多数问题不是技术问题,而是政治问题,这些事情需要时间。

Part 6: “Right now China is doing an exceptional job at the president level.”

Part 6: “中国的领导人很出色”

I think there is a 50-50 chance China will become the most important type of economy in the world. Right now China is doing an exceptional job at the president level. President Xi has laid out strategies in AI, 5G, infrastructure, belt and road, Bio-genomics, advanced manufacturing…These are the areas that the US will have to compete crazily in. Silicon Valley certainly has been the internet consumer leader of the world, and in certain technologies of the world. But we are not the business model leader of the world, that is where Tencent, Alibaba come into play. We have not seen similar type of business models like Tencent or Alibaba in the US, maybe because the Chinese population is five times larger than the US.

我认为中国有50%的机会成为世界上最重要的经济体。现在,中国的领导人很出色。习主席已经制定了人工智能、5G、基础设施、一带一路、生物基因组学、先进制造业等战略……这些领域都将与美国激烈竞争。硅谷当然是世界上的互联网消费的领导者,也是世界上其他某些技术的领导者。但我们不是世界商业模式的领导者,腾讯、阿里巴巴的创新极具价值,我们在美国没有看到类似的商业模式,这可能是因为中国人口比美国多五倍。

I love working with developers and entrepreneurs, in both the US and China. My advice to the engineers, developers and entrepreneurs is: get a couple of friends you really value and respect, build a great product that you love, a lot of good things will come out of that. I get up every day thinking, I don’t know if I will find the best investment today, but I will meet really interesting people, that is the reason I love working with entrepreneurs. I’m always learning, there is always something to be curious about.

无论在美国还是中国,我都乐于和创业者以及企业家合作。我对工程师、开发人员和企业家的建议是:结交真正的好友,做你真正喜欢的产品,很多好东西都会从中产生。我每天起床思考,我不知道今天是否会找到最好的投资标的,但我会遇到真正有趣的人,这就是我喜欢与企业家合作的原因。我一直在学习,总有一些有趣的东西在那里等着我。