【深度研究】加密市场的血雨腥风已经引来了更多凶恶的鲨鱼

2018年10月18日 02:03
來源:香港奇点财经 Wesley Yung
Crypto Market Has Spilled Its Blood to Lure The Sharks

Author’s View: In short, it is perhaps a misconception that gold and cryptocurrencies share the same blood. When interest rates rise, the stock market will be negatively impacted. The gold market has established itself as a safe alternative investment when the stock market is in turmoil. On the opposite, The cryptcurrency market is still maturing and being accepted fundamentally as a stable and safe investment choice. It needs more time to secure the heart of investors and mature as a safe haven market but next time when interest rates rise, the money may well go to the cryptocurrency market as this new virtual asset gains popularity. However, having said that, we should not forget the value of cryptocurrency market in the eyes of hedge funds. The hedge funds in alternative investment markets are constantly looking for arbitrage opportunities, what this means is, volatility is their friend. The volatile performance of the cryptocurrency market so far this year has caught attention from global hedge fund managers to look for long/short opportunities, especially when the illiquidity has created such big spreads in the market.  Despite having different blood, the cryptocurrency market has spilled its blood to lure the sharks, that is why we will continue to see more and bigger cryptocurrency hedge funds in the making.

作者观点:简而言之,黄金和加密货币拥有相同的血液是一种误解。 当利率上升时,股市将受到负面影响;当股市动荡时,黄金市场可以成为一种安全的另类投资。相反,加密货币市场仍在成熟中,还需要时间从根本上被逐步接受为稳定和安全的投资选择,也许最终慢慢过渡成为避险工具之一。可以预见在下次利率上升时,随着这种新的虚拟资产的普及,资金很可能会选择更多进入加密货币市场。但话说回来,我们不应该忘记加密货币市场在对冲基金眼中的价值,他们一直在寻找套利机会,这意味着,市场波动性(volatility)是他们的最好的朋友。今年迄今为止,加密货币市场波动的表现吸引了全球对冲基金经理的注意力,他们一直在寻找多头/空头机会,尤其当流动性不足导致市场价格出现剧大利差时。正因为流淌着不同的血液,加密市场的血雨腥风已经引来了更多凶恶的鲨鱼,这就是为什么我们近期持续看到越来越多大型的加密货币对冲基金成长起来

See full report below 正文如下:

With the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate for the third time in 2018, and the crytocurrency market being around since 2009, one may wonder if interest rates and the cryptocurreny market have any correlation, if at all, how do they affect each other? To begin, we assume that interest rates and the cryptocurrency market have a positive correlation and interest rates are the driver for any changes in cryptocurrency prices. We shall take the change in FED interest rate as an indicator of the impact of interest rates on the cryptocurrency market.

随着美联储在2018年第三次提高基准利率,以及自打2009年以来就已衍生出了加密货币,人们可能会想知道利率和加密货币市场是否有任何关联,如果有的话,它们如何相互影响? 首先,我们假设利率和加密货币市场具有正相关性,利率是加密货币价格变化的驱动因素。 让我们把美国联邦利率的变化作为利率对加密货币市场影响的指导性指标。

Popular Belief About Interest Rates and Cyptocurrency Market 关于利率和加密货币市场的流行观点

Many investors believe that higher interest rates will lead to people reassessing available alternative investments. Precisely, it is expected that money will flow out of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin into yielding assets like floating rate bonds, dividend paying stocks, or simply into bank saving accounts. On the opposite, when interest rates fall, the opportunity cost of foregoing interest-bearing investments is lower. It is more attractive to invest in safe assets like gold. One might argue cryptocurrencies have the potential to equally behave as an alternative to interest-bearing investments in low interest rate environment. It is no surprise that gold and cryptocurrencies have frequently been compared and likened. The supply of gold and bitcoin are both finite and therefore any change in demand could prove bearish or bullish for their prices. In essence, they are deflationary by definition. Ultimately, It is questionable whether gold is a direct alternative to markets like stocks and bonds and whether cryptocurrencies can ever behave like gold.

投资者相信,利率上涨将导致人们重新评估可选择的投资标的。准确地说,资金将会从等非收益类资产,比如比特币,流入收益率资产,如浮动利率债券,股息,或简单地转入银行储蓄账户。相反,当利率下降时,上述有息投资的机会成本就低很多。投资黄金等安全资产也许更具吸引力,有人可能会说,加密货币在低利率环境下同等地可以作为有息投资的替代品。毫不奇怪,黄金和加密货币经常被比来比去。黄金和比特币的供应都是有限的,因此需求的任何变化都可能导致其价格看跌或看涨。根据定义,它们是通货紧缩的。然而黄金是否是股票和债券等市场的直接替代品是值得考量的,更别提加密货币是否能像黄金一样表现目前也无据可查。

The Relation Between Gold and Stock Market 黄金与股市的关系

There is a popular belief that when interest rates rise, there will be less demand for gold hence the price of gold would drop. However, according to Investopedia, there is only a correlation figure of 28% between interest rates and the price of gold from 1970 to present, as result, this has called the popular belief into question.

人们普遍认为,当利率上升时,大家对黄金的需求将会减少,因此黄金的价格会下降。 然而,根据Investopedia的数据,从1970年到现在,利率与黄金价格之间只有28%的相关系数,因此,这所谓的流行看法是让人质疑的。

In fact, stock market typically suffers the largest outflow of money when rising interest rates make fixed-income investments more attractive. Whenever the stock market declines significantly, one of the first alternative investments that investors consider transferring money into is gold. Historically, the two assets have an average negative correlation of minus 0.06. So instead of a direct correlation, it is more compelling to say that the gold market benefits as a result of the less attractiveness of the stock market in times of rising interest rates.

事实上,当利率上升使固定收益投资更具吸引力时,股票市场通常会遭受最大的资金外流。 每当股市大幅下跌时,投资者考虑转移资金的首批另类投资之一就是黄金。 从历史上看,这两种资产的平均负相关为负0.06。 因此,在利率上升时股票市场吸引力下降,黄金市场受益更为明显,而不是直接关联。

A chart from a blog post by Gavekal Capital’s Eric Bush

Among the alternative markets, treasuries, bonds, gold, to name a few, all share something in common and the most important of those is stability. The G20 Summit has described digital currency as virtual asset and this new virtual asset is often mentioned together with gold for its scarce nature. But since cryptocurrencies are seen as more volatile and unstable compared to traditional currencies, is money also moving from stock market into cryptocurreny market when interest rates rise?

国债,债券,黄金,等等,都有一些共同点,其中最重要的就是稳定性。 G20峰会将数字货币描述为虚拟资产,这种新的虚拟资产经常与黄金一起被提及,因为它具有稀缺性质。 但是,加密货币与传统货币相比更具波动性和不稳定性,所以当利率上升时,货币是否应该从股票市场转移到加密货币市场呢?

The Relation Between Stock Market and Cryptocurrency Market 股票市场与加密货币市场的关系

Theoretically, cryptocurrency market should be able to behave like gold market and benefit from the money moving out of the equities. On Wednesday, October 10 2018, the Dow fell 3.2 percent and the Nasdaq 4 percent, the worst day of trading since the Brexit referendum in 2016. One might expect the cryptocurrency market to benefit from the decline in stock market but that week also saw $13 billion wiped off the cryptocurrency market. All the major coins have been affected. It is also hard to establish a direct correlation between interest rates and cryptocurrency prices when we observe the effect of Fed interest rate hike on Bitcoin price. Take 2017 as an example, Bitcoin price declined after the rate hikes in March and June while it rose after the rate hike in December.

从理论上讲,加密货币市场应该能够像黄金市场一样,从转出股票的资金中获益。 在2018年10月10日星期三那天,道指下跌3.2%,纳斯达克指数下跌4%,这是自2016年英国退欧公投以来最糟糕的交易日。有人预期加密货币市场将受益于股市下跌,但当周加密货币市场也损失了130亿美元。 所有主要加密币都受到了影响。 当我们观察美联储加息对比特币价格的影响时,很难在利率和加密货币价格之间建立直接关联。 以2017年为例,比特币价格在3月和6月加息后下跌,而在12月加息后价格上涨。

It is argued that the cryptocurreny market has yet to mimic gold and establish similar image as being a stable and sound alternative market. It would attract investors when it is doing well, for example, if it were rising in the same way as 2017, it is likely that more money would move from equities to the cryptocurrency market. With cryptocurrency still being such a new and volatile market, investors are not confident and ready enough to trust it and see it as a long-term alternative market to equities.

大家可以争议,那是因为加密货币市场尚未建立如黄金一般稳定和完善的形象。 如果投资货币表现良好,它确实会吸引投资者,例如,如果加密市场以与2017年相同的方式上涨,则可能会有更多资金从股票转向加密货币市场。 然而加密货币仍然是一个新兴且不稳定的市场,投资者并没有足够的信心去信任它,并将其视为股票的长期替代市场。

Summary 总结摘要

In short, it is perhaps a misconception that gold and cryptocurrencies share the same blood. When interest rates rise, the stock market will be negatively impacted. The gold market has established itself as a safe alternative investment when the stock market is in turmoil. On the opposite, The cryptcurrency market is still maturing and being accepted fundamentally as a stable and safe investment choice. It needs more time to secure the heart of investors and mature as a safe haven market but next time when interest rates rise, the money may well go to the cryptocurrency market as this new virtual asset gains popularity. However, having said that, we should not forget the value of cryptocurrency market in the eyes of hedge funds. The hedge funds in alternative investment markets are constantly looking for arbitrage opportunities, what this means is, volatility is their friend. The volatile performance of the cryptocurrency market so far this year has caught attention from global hedge fund managers to look for long/short opportunities, especially when the illiquidity has created such big spreads in the market.  Despite having different blood, the cryptocurrency market has spilled its blood to lure the sharks, that is why we will continue to see more and bigger cryptocurrency hedge funds in the making.

作者观点:简而言之,黄金和加密货币拥有相同的血液是一种误解。 当利率上升时,股市将受到负面影响;当股市动荡时,黄金市场可以成为一种安全的另类投资。相反,加密货币市场仍在成熟中,还需要时间从根本上被逐步接受为稳定和安全的投资选择,也许最终慢慢过渡成为避险工具之一。可以预见在下次利率上升时,随着这种新的虚拟资产的普及,资金很可能会选择更多进入加密货币市场。但话说回来,我们不应该忘记加密货币市场在对冲基金眼中的价值,他们一直在寻找套利机会,这意味着,市场波动性(volatility)是他们的最好的朋友。今年迄今为止,加密货币市场波动的表现吸引了全球对冲基金经理的注意力,他们一直在寻找多头/空头机会,尤其当流动性不足导致市场价格出现剧大利差时。正因为流淌着不同的血液,加密市场的血雨腥风已经引来了更多凶恶的鲨鱼,这就是为什么我们近期持续看到越来越多大型的加密货币对冲基金成长起来。