研究机构预测到2025年AI将取代七千五百万份工作

2018年12月7日 11:29
來源:香港奇点财经 Singularity Financial

It seems almost impossible to have a conversation about emerging enterprise tech without bringing up artificial intelligence (AI). But according to a newly published report from PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), AI remains decidedly more talk than action where most executives are concerned.
提到新科技型企业我们很难避而不提AI(人工智能),不过最近普华永道的一份最新调查显示,大多数高管对AI还是些许担心情绪。
PwC’s 11th annual Digital IQ survey found that only 53 percent are planning AI investments and use cases. About 19 percent said they have at least one use case and a plan, and a measly 4 percent said that they’ve successfully implemented the technology.
普华永道第十一期年度数字IQ调查显示,其中53%的公司正在计划在人工智能领域投资和用例。大约19%的公司表示他们至少有一个用例或者计划,不过只有4%的公司表示他们已经成功实施了这项技术。
Furthermore, only a minority of respondents — 19 percent — are convinced that AI will be disruptive in the years to come. Executives think that the internet of things (IoT) will have ultimately have a larger impact on their businesses’ bottom lines (30 percent) than AI or robotics (12 percent).
此外,只有少数受访者(19%)确信人工智能将在未来几年内具有破坏性。高管们认为互联网(IoT)最终会对其业务的底线产生比AI或机器人更大的影响。
This outlook seems to contradict other reports that show optimism for AI in the enterprise.
此次展望与之前部分报告显示对AI完全乐观的态度有所不同。

What people fear about?
人们在担心什么?
Since 2013, the most cited predictions include a study from Oxford University that predicted 47% of US jobs could be automated within the next decade or two; an Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) report that suggested just 9% of jobs in the United States were at high risk of automation; PwC research that found 38% of jobs in the United States were at high risk of automation by the early 2030s; and a McKinsey report that found around 50% of work tasks around the world are already automatable.
自2013年以来,来自牛津大学被的一项研究预测,在未来十年或二十年内,47%的美国就业岗位可以实现自动化。OECD的报告显示,美国仅有9%的工作岗位面临被自动化取代的高风险。普华永道的研究则发现,到2030年代初,美国38%的工作岗位都会面临这种风险。一份来自麦肯锡的报告则显示,全世界约有50%的工作任务已经实现自动化。
By some estimates, the enterprise AI market will be worth $6.14 billion by 2022. But to be fair, transparency and privacy concerns have hindered uptake.
据估计,到2022年,企业AI市场价值将达到61.4亿美元。不过,当前AI应用的透明度和隐私问题已经成为采用推行的一大障碍。
A separate survey by PwC in April found that a general lack of trust threatens to hamper the growth of assistants like Alexa and Siri, for instance. In a survey of 1,000 executives, one out of four said they only use voice assistance at home, citing a lack of privacy in public.
4月份普华永道独立做的另一项调查发现,使用者对AI普遍缺乏信任可能会阻碍类似Alexa和Siri这样AI助手的发展。在对1000名高管的调查中,有四分之一的人表示他们只在家中使用语音辅助,并认为这会让他们在公众面前缺乏隐私。
The World Economic Forum, PricewaterhouseCoopers, and Gartner have forecasted that AI could make redundant as many as 75 million jobs by 2025. And the McKinsey Global Institute this year forecasted that the portion of jobs calling for “low digital skills” may fall to 30 percent in 2030 from the current 40 percent.
在世界经济论坛,普华永道和Gartner预测,到2025年,AI或可以减少多达7500万个工作岗位。今年麦肯锡全球研究所也预测, “低数字技能”的工作岗位可能会下降到30%。

AI will create more jobs than it destroys?
与被其淘汰的工作量相比AI会创造更多工作机会吗?
The subject of AI and its potential impact on society has generated significant debate. In 2014, for example, the late scientist Stephen Hawking told the BBC that the “development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race.”
AI的其对社会的潜在影响引起了重大争议。在2014年,已故科学家斯蒂芬霍金就曾告诉BBC,“全人工智能的发展可能意味着人类的终结。”
Those fears might be misplaced, however. According to McKinsey, labor market shifts will result in a 1.2 percent increase in gross domestic product growth (GDP) for the next 10 years and help capture an additional 20-25 percent in net economic benefits — $13 trillion globally — in the next 12 years.
然而,这些恐惧可能是一种误解。根据麦肯锡的数据,劳动力市场的这种变化导致未来10年国内生产总值(GDP)增长1.2%,并有助于在未来12年内获得额外全球市场20-25%的净经济效益。
According to analysis published Tuesday by audit firm PwC: while AI could displace roughly 7 million jobs in the country, it could also create 7.2 million jobs, resulting in a modest net boost of around 200,000 jobs.
根据普华永道审计公司周二公布的分析结果:虽然AI可以取代该国大约700万个工作岗位,但也可能创造720万个工作岗位。从而实现约20万个工作岗位的净增长.
“Major new technologies, from steam engines to computers, displace some existing jobs but also generate large productivity gains,” John Hawksworth, PwC’s chief economist, said in a press release.
普华永道首席经济学家John Hawksworth在新闻发布会上表示,“从蒸汽机到计算机,新技术取代了现有的一些工作岗位,但也带来了大幅提高的生产力。”
Actually, you would find dozens of tasks that can’t be performed by machines. They can’t read and understand news and feature articles, subjectively assess appropriateness for a particular app’s audience, or communicate with reporters and other editors.
不过,事实上你也会发现有许多机器无法执行的任务。比如机器无法阅读和理解新闻以及专题文章,无法主观评估特定应用程序,或与记者和其他编辑进行沟通。
The hardest-hit industries will be those that involve high volumes of routine optimization work paired with external marketing or customer service: fast food, financial services, security, even radiology.
受AI影响最严重的行业主要是涉及日常工作的行业,以及外部营销或客户服务相结合的产业比如快餐,金融服务,安全,甚至放射业。
However, this does not mean the country will be facing a 40% to 50% unemployment rate. Social frictions, regulatory restrictions, and plain old inertia will greatly slow down the actual rate of job losses.
然而,这并不意味着国家将面临40%至50%的失业率。社会摩擦,监管将大大减缓实际的失业率。

Artificial Intelligence jobs on the rise. China and U.S are leading the way.
AI提供了更多职业 中美两国引领潮流
Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) is a massive industry, with potential in every field from autonomous cars to human resources. According to PwC, A.I. could add up to $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030.
AI是一个庞大的行业,在从自动汽车到人力资源的各个领域都具有潜力。根据普华永道数据,到2030年,全球经济可能因此增加15.7万亿美元。
Software company UiPath took a look at the job offerings in A.I. worldwide, scanning through 30,000 job listings from 15 industry-leading countries. Including all titles—from software engineer and intelligence researcher to sales engineer and product manager—UiPath found China and the U.S. are leading the way in total number of jobs.
软件公司UiPath做了有关A.I的工作机会的调查。在全球范围内,它浏览了来自15个国家领先行业30,000个职位列表。包括所有头衔:从软件工程师,情报研究员到销售工程师和产品经理,UiPath发现中国和美国在就业总数方面处于领先地位。
China tops the list with just over 12,000 job listings, followed by the U.S. with 7,000. Other leaders include Japan, the UK, India, Germany, France, Canada, Australia, and Poland.
中国以超过12,000个职位排在列表第一位,其次是美国,有7,000个工作机会。其他领先国家包括日本,英国,印度,德国,法国,加拿大,澳大利亚和波兰。
China’s Suzhou and Shanghai are the top two cities in number of A.I. jobs overall, with 3,300 and 1,600 jobs respectively.
中国的苏州和上海是A.I.的前两个城市。总体而言,分别有3,300和1,600个工作岗位。
Six of the top 10 cities are in China,Tokyo at third; London at eighth; New York City at ninth; and Bengaluru, India at tenth. San Francisco came in 12th with just under 400 jobs, and Seattle in 15th, with just under 300.
前十大城市中有六个在中国,东京排第三,伦敦排名第八,纽约市排名第九,第十是印度班加罗尔。旧金山以不到400个工作机会排名第12位,西雅图排名第15位,共有不到300个工作机会。