沖突不斷:中美爭奪全球高科技創新領軍地位

2019年1月3日 09:46
来源:香港奇点财经Singularity Financial

In November 2018, the US Commerce Department released a list of technologies, including artificial intelligence, that are under consideration for new export rules because of their importance to national security.

2018年11月,美國商務部發布了一系列技術清單,清單包括人工智能,並且由於其對國家安全的重要性,美國正在考慮新的出口準則。

The export controls are being considered as the United States and China engage in a trade war. The Trump administration has been critical of the way China negotiates deals with American companies, often requiring the transfer of technology to Chinese partners as the cost of doing business in the country. And federal officials are making an aggressive argument that China has stolen American technology through hacking and industrial espionage.

出口管制正被視為美國和中國之間貿易戰的一部分。特朗普政府一直批評中國與美國公司談判的方式,尤其談判中往往要求將技術轉讓給中國合作夥伴,作為在中國開展業務的成本。聯邦官員們也正在對中國通過黑客攻擊和工業間諜活動竊取美國技術的問題爭論不休。

AI gets political

AI政治化

An article released by New York Times on January 1, 2019, pointed out that, curbing on A.I. exports may eventually have Silicon Valley lose its edge. It is difficult to put a 「made in America」 label on artificial intelligence. Research on the technology is often done collaboratively by scientists and engineers all over the world.

《紐約時報》2019年1月1日發表的一篇文章指出,美國限制人工智能技術出口可能最終讓硅穀失去優勢,因為AI技術的研究突破依賴全世界各地的科學家和工程師共同完成,很難在每項人工智能技術上貼上「美國制造」的標簽。

Artificial intelligence, which involves computer systems performing tasks that simulate human intelligence, is expected to turn into a high-stakes political issue for China, as unresolved trade tensions prompt the US to tighten controls over the export of chips and other key technologies to the mainland.

人工智能,涉及使用計算機系統執行糢擬人類智慧,預計將成為中國的一個高風險政治問題。而因為一直未解決的貿易緊張局勢也促使美國加強對芯片和其他關鍵技術對中國出口的控制。

Jeffrey Ding, China lead for the Governance of AI Programme at University of Oxford, said the export controls may push Beijing to 「ramp up efforts at promoting indigenous innovation, which may come back to bite American firms hoping to maintain access to the Chinese market」.

牛津大學人工智能項目治理中國負責人Jeffrey Ding表示,「出口管制可能會促使北京『加大推動自主創新的力度』,這樣一來,那些希望進入中國市場的美國公司將失去競爭優勢。」

China has identified 17 key areas for AI development in China, among them smart vehicles, intelligent service robots, intelligent drones, neural network chips, and intelligent manufacturing, for examples; as well as bringing the value of AI to all levels throughout the supply chain.

中國已經確定了人工智能發展的17個關鍵領域,其中包括智能車輛,智能服務機器人,智能無人機,神經網路芯片和智能制造等,並將AI的價值帶到整個供應鏈的各個層面。

In the near-term future, China』s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) hopes to thrive in smart chips for autonomous driving, intelligent vehicle algorithms, and vehicle communications. Over the coming three years, Beijing expects to increase in the size of the AI industry by ten times.

在短期內,中國工業和資訊化部(MIIT)希望能夠推動自動駕駛,智能車輛和車輛通信的智能芯片的蓬勃發展。在未來三年內,北京預計將人工智能產業規糢擴大十倍。

China has a competitive AI game plan

中國具備有競爭力的人工智能戰略規劃

The Boston Consulting Group』s study Mind the (AI) Gap: Leadership Makes the Difference published earlier December 2018 provides insights into China』s emerging global leadership of AI. A copy of the study can be downloaded here. BCG』s study focuses on the key drivers of success in AI implementations and is based on a global survey of over 2,700 managers in seven countries.

根據波士頓咨詢集團(BCG)在2018年12月的研究《關註(AI)差距:管理者引發的不同》提供有關中國在新興市場全球人工智能領導力的見解。該研究的副本可以在這裡下載。 BCG的重點研究人工智能能夠得以實施的關鍵驅動因素,並對對7個國家2,700多名管理人員進行全球調查。

The study found that there is a strong connection between bold, disruption-friendly management styles including actively putting AI high on the agenda, encouraging rapid development and piloting, and fostering cross-functional, agile R&D, all leading to AI industry leadership. Chinese organizations are beginning to dominate AI due to these factors combined with their shorter innovation cycles than their peer organizations. BCG found that structural improvements at the national level do play an important role in laying the foundations for AI growth—investments in data infrastructure, in research hubs and networks, and higher education for IT and data-related fields.

該研究發現,積極地將AI列入議程,鼓勵快速開發和試點,促進跨職能,更為靈敏的研發,這類大膽,突破性管理都能夠幫助公司在AI行業取得領導地位。這些因素再加上中國公司的創新周期比同行業需要的時間短,中國在人工智能行業裡快速成長,後來居上。 BCG還發現,在全國範圍進行結構性改進確實能夠推動人工智能曡代更新,高速發展,尤其是對基礎設施,研究中心,網路以及IT和數據相關領域的高等教育的投資為AI發展奠定了堅實基礎。

In fact, global GDP is set to increase by 14 percent because of AI, according to PwC. The tech’s deployment in the decade ahead will add $15.7 trillion to global GDP, with China predicted to take $7 trillion and North America $3.7 trillion, according to the multinational company. “Data is the new oil, so China is the new Saudi Arabia,” Kai-Fu Lee, venture capitalist and author of “AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order,” told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

據普華永道稱,由於人工智能,全球GDP將增加14%。據跨國公司稱,該技術在未來十年的部署將為全球GDP增加15.7萬億美元,中國預計7萬億美元,北美3.7萬億美元。 「數據是新的石油,所以中國是新的沙特阿拉伯,」風投資本家,《AI Superpower:中國,硅穀和新世界秩序》的作者李開複表示。

“If you measure by research — basic research papers published, excellence of research — U.S. is and will be ahead for the next decade,” he said. “But if you measure by value created, how much market capitalization, how many users, how much revenue, China probably is already ahead.” Lee said AI could replace 40 to 50 percent of all jobs in the U.S. in the next 15 years.

「如果你通過研究來衡量 – 發表的基礎研究論文的篇數,卓越的研究成果 – 美國將在未來十年內取得進展,」他說。 「但如果按照創造的價值衡量,市場資本化程度,用戶數量,收入多少,中國可能已經領先。」

李開複表示表示,未來15年,人工智能可以取代美國40%至50%的工作崗位。

The steps to achieve global dominance reflect the amount of funding destined to technology and AI firms in China. Last year, 48 percent of total global funding of AI startups globally came from China, compared to 38 percent funded by the US, and 13 per cent by the rest of the world.

實現全球主導地位的每一步都反映了中國技術和人工智能公司的資金數量。去年,全球人工智能創業公司全球資金總額的48%來自中國,而美國的這一比例為38%,世界其他地區則為13%。

China will soon overtake the US in developing and deploying AI

中國將很快在開發和部署人工智能方面超過美國

Lee Kai-fu, Google』s former China head who now manages about US$2 billion in investments as chairman and chief executive of the technology-focused venture capital firm Sinovation Ventures, acknowledges that China is playing catch-up to the US but thinks the balance is tilting due to the country』s practical application of AI and huge pools of data.

穀歌前中國負責人李開複現在管理著約20億美元的投資,擔任以技術為重點的風險投資公司Sinovation Ventures的董事長兼首席執行官,他承認中國正在追趕美國,但認為現在的平衡已經由於該國實際應用人工智能和龐大的數據庫而發生傾斜。

「I believe that China will soon match or even overtake the US in developing and deploying AI,」 he writes in his new book, AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley and the New World Order ,arguing that China』s entrepreneurs are using AI to solve real-world problems just like entrepreneurs in the 19th century applied the invention of electricity to practical concerns such as cooking, lighting and the powering of industrial equipment.

「我相信中國很快會在開發和部署人工智能方面與美國相匹敵甚至超過美國,」他在新書《AI Superpowers:中國,硅穀和新世界秩序》中寫道,中國的企業家正在使用人工智能來解決實際問題。世界問題就像19世紀的企業家將電力發明應用於烹飪,照明和工業設備供電等實際問題。

According to Lee, this transition towards implementation helps China avoid its weak point in 「outside the box」 approaches to research and a lack of top-tier researchers, and leverage its most significant strength – 「scrappy entrepreneurs with sharp instincts」 for building robust businesses.

李開複表示,這種將技術落地的轉變有助於中國避免 「開箱即用」和缺乏頂級研究人員方面的弱點,並利用其最重要的力量 – 「富有創業精神的鬥志旺盛的企業家」來建立穩健的企業。

According to China AI Development 2018 report, China had 18,232 AI technology research talents, accounting for 8.9 percent of the world』s total, US accounting for 13.9 percent. Currently, China is harnessing the potential of digital technologies to continue its progress on the path of economic development.

根據中國人工智能發展2018年的報告,中國擁有18,232名人工智能技術研究人才,占全球總數的8.9%,美國占13.9%。

目前,中國正在利用數字技術的潛力,繼續在經濟發展的道路上取得進展。

Many Chinese businesses are recognizing the need to invest their money and expertise in innovation hubs or equivalents to drive leading-edge products and services. Susana Tsui, Group CEO of Dentsu Aegis Network, China, says, 「These investments will help China to move further up the value chain into more knowledge-based activity, while also increasing the spread of digital services and products across the economy.」

許多中國企業認識到為了推動領先的產品和服務,需要將他們的資金和專業知識投入到創新中心或同等產品中。

Dentsu Aegis Network中國集團首席執行官Susana Tsui表示,「這些投資將幫助中國進一步向價值鏈上移動更多知識型活動,同時也增加數字服務和產品在整個經濟中的傳播。」

「I think moving forward into the future, we are going to see more industry-specific or vertical-specific AI, and AI-specific chipsets dedicated for specific use cases. At the moment, the industry as a whole is working on creating powerful general purpose AI frameworks and hardware. Once all the groundwork has been laid out, we will see more targeted AI applications which will lead to industrial wide adoption,」 Su says.

Su說:「我認為展望未來,我們將看到更多行業特定或垂直化的AI產品,以及專用於特定用例的AI專用芯片組的出現。目前,整個行業正致力於創建功能強大的通用性的AI框架和硬件。一旦完成所有基礎工作,我們將看到更多有針對性的AI應用程序,這將領導其在工業中被廣泛採用。」